A decade later, the world's largest economic centers will look completely different than today. China will dominate the world, India will overtake the United States, and Egypt’s economic growth will be so rapid that it will enter the top ten largest economies in the world. These are the forecasts of Standard Chartered Bank, a British multinational banking and financial company.

Visual Capitalist compared Standard Chartered Bank forecasts for 2030 with the latest IMF GDP (PPP) data for 2017.

Top 10 largest economies in the world in 2030

Forecasting Methodology

Standard Chartered Bank analysts drew their conclusions after examining countries' exchange rates for purchasing power parity and nominal GDP.

In the future, emerging markets should catch up with developed countries, due to their convergence in GDP per capita. In other words, as a country's products begin to correspond to its population, this can mean a lot when it comes to densely populated countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil and Egypt.

Grow, multiply and thrive

According to Standard Chartered, Asian economies will be booming in the next decade, and will occupy the majority of places in the ten largest economies in the world.

Last year, the Asian slice of the pie in world GDP grew to 28%, while in 2010 this figure was 20%. It is likely that by 2030 it will reach 35%, which corresponds to the indicators of Europe and the United States combined. And this is not surprising. It is expected that the total world population will exceed 8.5 billion people by 2030. Moreover, the majority (about 5 billion) will live in Asia.

At the same time, according to the Standard Chartered forecast, the majority of the world's population - about 5.4 billion people - will be in the middle class by income by 2030. For comparison: in 2015, there were only three billion people in the world who could claim to be in the middle class.

It is predicted that both China and India will overtake the United States as the largest and second largest economy in the world, respectively. The US will drop to third place.

Egypt starts and wins

Of all the countries on this list, Egypt has the most optimistic forecasts. He will make the biggest “economic leap”. According to Standard Chartered experts, the only Middle Eastern country to be in the top ten will move from the 21st place of the most developed economies of the world to the 7th place over the next decade. This spurt coincides with an increase in the country's population - by 30 percent, to 128 million by 2030.

In other words, between 2017 and 2030, Egypt's economy will grow by 583 percent. And the country's GDP over the same period will increase from 1.2 trillion. dollars to 8.2 trillion. dollars.

What awaits the Russian economy by 2030

But with the Russian economy, not everything is as good as with the Egyptian one. It is expected that the Russian economy will fall from sixth to eighth place in the list.

• However, Standard Chartered experts reassure that the economy of our country will still grow at a significant pace, despite Western sanctions.
• According to the World Bank economic forecast published in January 2019, the GDP growth rate of the Russian Federation should grow to 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021.
• According to the International Monetary Fund, Western sanctions will be offset by rising world oil prices. This will positively affect the Russian economy.
• According to the report of the Standard Chartered Bank, by 2030, Russia's GDP will amount to $ 7.9 trillion.

Conclusions

From this study, it can be understood that the global economy is rebuilding quite quickly, causing changes that require a reaction from any rational investor trying to maximize long-term profitability.

Simply put, if countries such as China, India, Brazil, Egypt, and Russia are on a solid and long-term growth path, it makes sense to invest in this growth.

If Standard Chartered forecasts come true, countries such as Canada, France and the UK will be knocked out of the top ten global economies.

Watch the video: TOP10 POWERFUL Economies in 2030GDP (November 2024).